Britain has a stark economic choice: Recession or relief

The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on March 29. Crashing out of the bloc without an exit agreement would result in turmoil; striking a deal would minimize damage to the economy.

UBS economists led by Arend Kapteyn say their outlook for the UK economy is “binary.” The disruption to trade caused by a disorderly Brexit would “plunge the UK into recession,” they warn. A deal would postpone difficult decisions and provide certainty to business.